Streaming giant Netflix has undergone a series of ambitious expansions in recent years, and its soaring value on Wall Street underlines investor confidence in the platform. But is its target of a $1 trillion market capitalization by 2030 a bridge too far?
There’s little doubt that Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is one of the breakout stars of 2025 so far. The stock ended the first half of the year more than 46% up, taking its total growth to around 295% since 2020.
Crucially, Netflix’s commitment to innovation and sustainability appears to be coming to fruition, with strong fundamentals in place and expansion into new industries opening the door to further revenue streams.
The stock has been trading above its 50-week moving average for around 18 months now, and surpassed a market cap of $500 billion in May.
Such positive movements have already caused speculation about when NFLX can become a trillion-dollar stock. The firm itself issued a price target of $1 trillion by 2030. But is it possible to reach a 13-figure valuation for the ambitious tech firm?
Innovation and Sustainability
Netflix’s decision in 2021 to recruit former Electronic Arts and Facebook executive Mike Verdu as vice president of game development was an early indication of the platform’s eagerness to expand into new markets.
Alongside gaming, the multi-year deal Netflix agreed to with World Wrestling Entertainment in 2024 helped to turn live event streaming into a commonplace feature.
In recent days, Netflix announced a partnership with NASA to broadcast live streams of rocket launches, astronaut spacewalks, and mission coverage via NASA+ services.
This emphasis on growth is coming while Netflix has shored up with marketing expenses, lowering spending on marketing to $688 million in Q1 2025, as opposed to $976 million during the quarter prior.
Despite this, Netflix has successfully accelerated its expansion into new markets, growing its revenue 13% over the first quarter of 2025 in the process.
With an astonishing 23% year-over-year revenue growth in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, generating $1.26 billion in the process, it’s clear that Netflix is experiencing massive success in sustainably growing into new markets.
$1 Billion May be a Bridge Too Far
The sustained rise of Netflix in recent years has made its $1 trillion target by 2030 appear wholly achievable. If the stock maintains its current rate of growth, it could reach a 13-figure valuation some years ahead of schedule.
However, not all market analysts are optimistic about Netflix reaching its target within the specified time frame.
Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin placed a fair value estimate on NFLX at $750. Although the price had been raised significantly from earlier estimates of $730, it still represents a 42% drop in its Wall Street value today.
Dolgin suggested that even if Netflix executives achieved their plans to double revenue from $39 billion in 2024 and earn around $9 billion in global ad sales by 2030, it would still only be fairly valued at approximately $1,225, which is a price that’s lower than its value today.
The analyst also expressed doubts that customers would be receptive to global price hikes or the platform’s crackdown on password sharing.
The disparity between price and value for Netflix suggests that the stock is highly speculative. However, its consistent stream of innovations may pave the way for world users to continue finding value in the streaming service.
With adoption rates growing in world markets, optimism is high that Netflix’s expansion can continue, but competitors may have other ideas.
Cautious Optimism in World Markets
Amazingly, Netflix’s 23% year-over-year revenue growth in APAC in Q1 2025 was followed by 15% growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) worth $3.4 billion.
The platform’s expansion into the EMEA market received a further boost this year when Netflix expanded its programmatic offering in partnerships with Google’s Display & Video 360 (DV360) and The Trade Desk in the region.
The move opens the door to additional buying options for advertisers in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, and it plans to expand into APAC in the months ahead, too.
However, expanding into world markets can present fresh competition for Netflix to overcome. Streaming giant iQiyi has been dubbed the Netflix of China, and other firms like Baidu, and Alibaba are prominent stocks that could pose a threat to Netflix’s expansion into APAC markets.
For investors looking to back Netflix to reach its $1 trillion ambitions, it may be worth using a brokerage like Just2Trade, with access to APAC markets as a hedge against failure. The proliferation of streaming services in the US, like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, AppleTV+, and Hulu, has posed a threat to Netflix’s growth in the past, and these hurdles will be greater in new markets.
Despite this, Netflix has proved time and again that it’s capable of overcoming adversity with an innovative and future-proofed strategy for growth. Should this approach stand firm in the face of overseas competition, the stock may well continue its charge to $1 trillion.
