The U.S. China Trade War May Cause Multipolarity Instead of Deglobalisation

8 min read

The U.S.- China trade, technology, and possible currency war suggest a continued escalation beyond rhetoric, with negative implications for trade in an already slowing global economy. Following the bout of tit-for-tat tariffs, talks of “deglobalization” have emerged strongly, with falling trade volumes between both countries undoubtedly support this narrative. Such claims, I think, are however misplaced as the unintended consequences of the trade war could incentivize, rather than impede, trade amongst other economies in Asia, Europe and beyond. Furthermore, de-globalization is possible only if all countries simultaneously engage in trade wars or a Western-Eastern split emerges more strongly. Nevertheless, the aggressor…...

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Henri Kouam Tamto Henri Kouam Tamto is a macroeconomist focusing on Oil, FX and Credit markets in Advanced and emerging market economies. Working both independently and as part of a team, Henri forecasts and writes both thematic as well as research notes on economic data releases, Central bank policy, and global commodity prices. He also has a strong interest in trade policy and the implications of globalization for countries and asset classes.