I Figured Out How to Predict the Stock Market — and Still Lost Money.

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I created the holy grail, everything one could wish for — but learned quite an expensive lesson regardless. Background To understand what I did, we must first learn some things about how stock prices move.  Everyone has their own view of how prices move, but a common one — and one that I abide by, is that stock prices can be modeled through something known as Brownian motion. Brownian motion is the observation of random movements from point A to point B. Examples of this are dust floating in a room, or a gas molecule bouncing around randomly.  When applied to stock prices, this…...

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Quant Galore Quantitative trader writing about markets and strategies for all those interested.