Using Options to Indicate Future Stock Price

A time-series analysis of underlying asset movement as a function of option trades, powered by the Facebook Prophet model. 1. Introduction 1.1 Options & Their Use In Stock Forecasting The traditional view of an option is as a derivative security, valued based on dependence on an underlying asset. Various mathematical models have been applied to determine the value of an option as a function of asset performance, while the inversion of this relationship has seen limited exploration. Many deride the notion that options can be used to accurately determine the future price of an underlier. In recent months, the publicity around the options…...