How Not to be Dumb Money, 3.0

6 min read

Gamestop Meme War Marshmallow Experiment Update When fear is overpriced, sell some. Gamestop dropped 29% today to $143 and I’m smiling at its put options’ inverted volatility smile. GME’s out of the money (OTM) puts cratered along with the stock price. This theoretically should not happen. But it did, which proves the inverted volatility smile process outlined in the previous articles is repeatable. The proof is in the pudding, or in this case, shorted marshmallows left on the plate for a sweeter tasting later when the GME meme-ification bubble bursts: Oct 15, 2021, $3 strike puts: down 17% (.12 to .10),…...

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RigaWriter I\'m a NYer living in Latvia since 2005, after living in Italy from 1989-2005, Spain and Catalonia in 1976, 1980-81 and 1986-87, southern France the summers of 1985 & 1986 and Portugal in the Carnation Revolution summer of 1974. Conversational Russian and Latvian are my 6th and 7th languages. I did channel check research for one hedge fund and a Wall St research firm from 2009-12 and taught Behavioral Investing, Entrepreneurship and History at Riga Business School from 2012-16. Title of my investments course: The History of Human Financial Stupidity--Including Mine. From 1998-2007 I invested in real estate in Latvia and Estonia. Since 2015 I\'ve invested 7 early stage startups, none of which have yet failed, but some of which inevitably will. Best trade: shorting 20m JPY with spot and options trades on FXY in early 2013 Worst trade: long yield-trap MLPs in 2015 My wrestling match with The Great Humiliator: ongoing.

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